SPX -2060
Oil @$40 pb
DXY +96
FOMC: Chair Yellen speaks 11:30EST Wednesday. Non-Farm Payrolls 08:30EST Friday
Forecast: Continuation of intermediate broad market uptrend with eye on interest rate differentials and USD strength.
Forecast: Continuation of intermediate broad market uptrend with eye on interest rate differentials and USD strength.
Despite recent terror attacks in Brussels and Islamabad we do not see much of a challenge to our ongoing thesis of probable new market highs unless, of course, there is something earth shattering from this Tuesday's Yellen statement, Wednesday's ADP release, or Friday's Non-farm payrolls number.
Last week we were looking for opportunities to join the broad market intermediate uptrend, which came at the SPX 2025 level, interestingly, on the last trading day of the week before Good Friday.
I am expecting moves to the upside to continue early in the trading week, this week, to the SPX 2060 level before going quiet ahead of Friday's Non-farm employment release.
Two charts that are drawing my attention as potential challengers to new highs are the 10 year and the DXY.
I want to keep a close watch on both of these metrics, as you can be certain the Fed is, because they have the potential to put negative pressure on equity prices as they are inversely correlated to our inflation, consumer, debt-based economy.
The yield on the 10 year, for example, looks like it is in a position of strength as it continues to challenge 2.00% last week with more veracity than it did the week before last.
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| US Ten Year Yield Weekly |
As for the USD, we fully expected buyers at 95.00 but I am not expecting survival beyond 98.00 with the aforementioned market at current levels.
Happy marketing.
